BIG MARLEY’S UFC 227 BETTING PREVIEW
There is a good deal of money to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the main tournament. DK also has a lot of Qualifier competitions available this week, where the last event will pay $50k into 1st if you did qualify to perform in it. I’ll be pursuing those as well since we’ve never had a $50k 1st place prize and I want it. I really do think we have a fun card this Saturday and that I am ready to go into this 3-week break with a winning night at UFC 227. Listed below are a couple plays I like this weekend together with my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the most powerful play in all DFS MMA and he has the maximum ceiling as well. DJ is the P4P best fight on earth (not counting Jon Jones) and he’s beat Cejudo once before. This is the first person I’m plugging into my money LU this week and I advise you to do exactly the same. DJ is practically guaranteed to score at 100-points in a win, and he has a -550 gambling line saying he must find the win here. Play it safe and use DJ in money. You can stack this battle also, however I think DJ is essential.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a good struggle to target this week because it most likely will not visit a decision. Holland just fought the Contender Series a couple weeks back and didn’t receive a contract. But now he’s on the PPV against one of the most bizarre strikers from the division. The ITD lineup for Santos is currently -210 and the under 1.5 rounds betting line is -160. This tells me Vegas thinks this battle ends early and Santos is the guy that should pick up the end. At $9.2k, he readily pays that price tag off at a 1st round win and I think he’s a good shot at doing exactly that. I really don’t care for him in money game formats however because both men have quite lower flooring, so this really is a GPP just play for me.
Underdog play of this week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I think everybody is writing off Brett Johns after his loss to Aljo Sterling and that’s exactly why he is so cheap on DraftKings this weekend. With the wrestling fashion Johns brings to the table, he has 100+ upside even in a decision win. Of course, we are concerned about him getting caught in a guillotine when he shoots for takedowns, but when he can avoid that I think he could win this battle and 10x his salary with a win. I really don’t think Johns will want to strike with Munhoz for 15-minutes so that I do believe he is going to be shooting takedowns. Those takedowns can get him filed, or they may get him a triumph on the scorecards. However, this makes him a boom or bust play and that’s why he is a solid underdog to select in GPPs this past week.
Fade of the week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even in a cheap $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still require a finish to cover that price tag off with her style. She’s the worst style potential for scoring DraftKings stage and even if she gets a win here she could wind up scoring less than several losers on the card. Taylor is going to be the least possessed fighter in GPPs this week, so if you want to invest your money on a 115 lb lady using a”punchers chance” of winning you a GPP, then you will be very contrarian taking that route. But I don’t have any interest in investing my money into that so I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I had been making 150 lineups, I’d still full vanish Taylor here.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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